STI Bear Appearing? Triple EMAs crossing down, price close below EMAs

STI Bear Appearing? Triple EMAs crossing down, price close below EMAs

Fed Janet Yellen, the supposed "Dove" Chief has become "Hawk" on her 1st chaired meeting, giving guidance on expected period when rates will start rising and so on. This has driven most currencies to trade lower against US$, and monies leaving for US$...

On the chart front, many indices have fallen, & STI seem to have entered a renewed downtrend.

I used short term EMAs with 7, 13 & 26 days, and all are set to cross tomorrow (21/3/14), all it need was for STI to close the same or lower. Trading is never easy, as some of you may noticed that just 4 days ago, 14/3/14 when the STI opened below the EMAs but closed up, and almost seem like a fake breakdown but has since come back down with a breakdown signal again.

And I hate to trade on Fri, 21/3/14 as you never know what is going to happen over the weekend, but it looks premature if one is to close the trade intra-day leaving profit on the table. Just look at the previous down cycle, 24/1/14 STI open & closed below EMAs, then 27/1/14 opened with a gap down at 3038, if one is daring enough to use Put Warrants or leveraged instruments such as CFD, it would have been a 10% immediate gain over 2 days period.

May the trend be with you...

1st foray investing overseas... huh? MICEX, DBXT MSRussia10US$ (J0R)?

DBXT MSRussia10US$ (J0R)

Now that Crimea has joined Russia Federation, is the standoff over? If situation can only become better from now, then should we start considering investing in Russia Stock Market Index, the MICEX?

Now do not get me wrong, I am not giving a recommendation here. It is already risky enough to trade stocks, and it could be worse trying to invest in a foreign country’s stock index but its possible through DBXT MSRussia10US$ (J0R) listed on SGX.

2 additional risks here to bear in mind, one foreign risk; the foreign law, the foreign culture, every thing that is foreign is risky simply because you are less familiar with it. At least you are more familiar with SG regulations as you are staying here, but foreign country...

Second risk, currency exchange. You may get the price right, it may rise, but if its currency depreciate against SG$... worse, assuming the ETF purchase MICEX top 25 stocks in Russian rubles, then sell the fund in US$, but you bought via SGX with SG$, so its altogether 3 ways exchange.

Fortunately, both the Ruble currency and the MICEX stock index have fallen since the Ukarine-Crimea crisis started, if the worse is over; or perhaps over the slightly long term say 1 year later, perhaps Putin & the rest of the world will forget & be merry again? Think about past Argentina crisis… there’s so many crisis even Russia once defaulted its bonds, but it all seem so distant when it was only last century and we are only 14 years into 21^st century J

My point is, MICEX has fallen, Ruble has fallen, but has all its great businesses there affected? Are they exporting less goods, less natural gas? Or will all this be temporary? If this are all temporary, is there an opportunity lies within this crisis?

All will this be an once in a lifetime opportunity? How often do you see Russian MICEX index selling at PE ratio of only 5.32? Hack, the earnings will return my capital after less than 6 years... Just saying :)

Update on Trades
As a result of this MICEX opportunity, I decided to close SATS and divert monies to DBXT MSRussia10US$ (J0R). This is a mid-term trade which I hope to exit once situation normalise, and price go back to its normal range of 1440-1500.
I am still holding on to Popular, looks like its still sleepy, lets wait a little for its Dividend 1 cent in Sept 14...

SATS Company Buyback & Sleepy Popular maybe awaking

SATS has launched series of company buyback of its shares.

The last it did was between 11 Nov 13 - 19 Dec 13, spent est.$8.509 million buying back at between $3.07-3.30. Price seem to have risen back until recently it fell again to as low as $2.93, a 2 years low.
Then it started buying back again, and has spent $9.339 million buying back till yesterday, there was also some large transactions today, it maybe buying back still.

While most companies buyback shares to reward its existing sharesholders, by reducing the number of outstanding shares, since dividends are not paid to Treasury shares it bought back.
Furthermore SATS seemed to only do so, when price seem to oversold. Its dividend of 10cent in Aug 14 & 5cent in Nov 13, if continues will equate to 4.95% (at $3.03 last close).

Adapted recent buyback history from Shareinvestor.com, its a neat data to decipher corporate actions :)

Sleepy Popular maybe awaking
Popular has languished for sometimes & drop to as low as $0.22, it stayed there for sometimes until recently there is a force index spikeup signalling a potential rebound or breakup. On a side note, its extremely to buy at $0.22 now, I did a trade today at $0.225 (& waited quite some times to get), a potential entry price would be $0.225-0.23, with a stop loss at $0.215, targets would be $0.25.
Fundamentally, Popular should be announcing its quarterly result soon, do note that Q1 & Q3 are seasonally stronger earnings period. Lastly its dividend in Sept 13 of 1cent, if continues would equate to 4.58% yield (at $0.225).
Rolling PE: 8.84
NAV: $0.2668, Price/NAV: 0.82 (aka 18% margin of safety).