Monday, July 8, 2013

Sound Global - Potential Stock Arbitrage Case Offer $0.70

On 5 July 13, after-trading hours, Sound Global issued an update, pardon me if I interpreted wrongly, basically it converted its bonds and warrants into shares, about 22.3% (bonds) and 0.7% (warrants), thus with reference to page 3 of 28 June's notice (attached), Wen Yibo and his concerted party's 56.20%, they have control of est. 79.2% of entire Sound Global's shareholding.

Sound Global dual listed in SGX & HK, Chairman Wen Yibo proposed his interest to delist from SGX & offer cash consideration no less than $0.70.

2 things matter to tender offer; 1) the chance of the tender offer to succeed & 2) the time taken to succeed.

1) The chance Chairman Wen Yibo getting regulatory approval of SGX, HK & financing (est.$300 mil.needed) to complete the deal?
Networth of Wen Yibo & family: $1.3 billion
Wen Yibo is China's first and, for now, only entrepreneur to break into the billionaire ranks thanks to an expertise in treating waste water. His Hong Kong- and Singapore-listed company Sound Global provides water treatment services to several major Chinese cities and manufacturing zones. His Shenzhen-listed Sound Environmental Resources also builds waste processing facilities. Increases in business last year lifted the shares of both, and with it, Wen's wealth. Sound Environmental's sales in first nine months of 2012 rose by 26% to $208 million; it's net profit jumped 42% to $44 million. Sound Global's revenue increased by 12% in the six months ending in June to $191 million. Wen holds a degree in environmental engineering from Langzhou Jiaotong University, where he is a part-time professor. He shares his fortune with his wife.

Unlikely he will fail in getting the financing and regulatory needed, as the deal does not concerns any sensitive interests.

2) time taken to succeed?
I estimated 1-2 months time to confirm the deal & announce a public offer, & another 1 -3 months to get the stakes needed to delist Sound Global from SGX.
If I am not wrong, a 90% tender is needed, since Wen Yibo owns 56% and the deal is only delisting from SGX but remains listed in HK I don't expect any resistance from its other shareholders like Norges Bank 5.9%, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. 7.19%.

Projected rate of return:
If $0.635, Projected Profit ($0.065) divide by Investment ($0.70) =  9.28%
If assigned 70% chance succeed, our Adjusted Projected Rate of Return (APRR) is 0.7 x $0.065 = $0.0455.

If deal fail, price will drop back to pre-offer traded price of $0.57 (or drop of $0.065), thus loss becomes $0.57/$0.635=89% or aka loss of 11%.
If assigned 30% chance fail, our Adjusted Projected Rate of Loss (APRL) is 0.3 x $0.065 = $0.0195.

Risk-adjusted projected profit (RAPP) = APRR $0.0455 - RAPP $0.0195 = $0.026.
Risk-adjusted projected rate of return (RAPRR) = RAPP $0.026 / Investment $0.635 = 4%.

Assume a desired closing of deal in 3 months, RAPRR annualised becomes 16%
Assume a likely closing of deal in 6 months, RAPRR annualised becomes 8%.

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