Saturday, January 17, 2015

Goodbye for awhile...

At the start of new year, I went through some reflection & goals setting... My initial inspirations to write this blog was to share, diary log & learn... possibly even attract some funds for me to manage...

But now I felt it maybe time to take a break from writing & focus on my mind cultivation to transcend to next level. As a parting note, I talk about the 3 Ms of trading, the mind method & money.

Most beginning investors/traders/gamblers, they focus on the method. How to evaluate a business with PE, NAV, PEG, EVA etc. The "correct" indicators setting,  the trick to poker or any other games.

Despite best designs n efforts, methods do fail, if it succeed everytime then they could have been programmed n boom... everyone become a millionaire. There's no need to work, just subscribe to the holy grail method... Markets go through ups n downs, and best systems also need to be tweaked from time to time. Instead of finding the method that work (much like how to live forever...) it would be better to manage the method when it fail through the other 2 Ms.

The money talks about having stop loss limits, basic capital to start (eg. $5k) and so on.

The mind talks about individual, temperament, how we handle trades both when its winning and when its losing.. aa well as handling boredom, drawdowns and so on.

Personally I can find winning trades, but sometimes being too eager to deploy my capital; I stare at charts so hard that my mind begin to wonder n convince myself what I hope to see. That's not good, being objective is important,  even more when chart give conflicting signals, the worse is having bias and miss the big real picture.

Another problem I have, is once I am in a trade, I tend to be too eager and read too much every single candlestick/price bar that comes after. Candlesticks only works usually at price of extremes near support n resistance; to read every single candlestick and find meaning confuse myself from the initial setup that I went in for. Also, most setup requires weeks to develop, grabbing profits too early & missing the developing pattern or exiting at the slight pull back when weekly patterns is forecasting a multi months uptrend... all these results in cutting my winnings.

Lastly, there are opportunities almost everyday, some developing, some subpar... jumping into everyone is a sign of overtrading. I dont lose when I keep money in bank, I lose when I buy at the wrong time!

These are some lessons then I reflected and pray hard that I will wise up and not repeat them again. A true transcendence comes when I stopped making these amatuer mistskes, then my return could transcend to double digits and above.

It can be done, my peak performance has already done it before but my mistakes reduced them to single digit return which I must avoid.

To sum it up, the mind is our greatest asset and enemy, we can only improve when we throw away our old self and mold our new self. Select the goods n discard the bads... scrutinize which is which.

May the trend be with you... perhaps one day I shall return to blog again...

Saturday, January 3, 2015

2014 November-December Review, 2013 vs 2014, Holdings going into 2015

2014 November-December Review

I suffered several drawdowns in my trades, drastically reducing my equity return this year to $4K only. I was too eager to "get it back" after my NOL loss that I kept going in and out of trades within days & failed to wait for the counters to play out. Its like riding a bull, the bull shake me & I drop out even though I know the bull is roughly heading in the direction I want (the reason I went in at the first place). My last trades in UOB-Kay Hian & SIA Engineering, had I hold on to the holdings, would have turn out profitable. This was my last key takeaways that I hope to learn & remember, if possible not repeating it...





















2013 vs 2014 Returns









I realized my style gradually changed, I no longer follow penny and buyouts, focusing more on technical charting and indicators.


Holdings going into 2015
Wee Hur: 
My father highlighted this counter to me, hearing from his friends who said the company will likely declare 2cent dividend.

Upon closer look, company made record earning in Q3 EPS 9.67cent announced on 7 Nov 14, bringing 9M EPS to 11.16cent.
In 2012 FY EPS 13cent it declared 3cent dividend on 28 Feb 2013, ex-date 3 May 2013. Price went to a high of $0.57 before falling to $0.435 before ex-date.

4Q13 EPS: 0.76cent                          4Q12 EPS: 12.5cent

Est.FY14 EPS to be 12cent at least, likely will declare similar dividend of 3cent in Feb-Mar 2015, ex-date in May 15.

Thus we went into this trade as "father & son", target to hold to before/after ex-dividend date.

Centurion:
I spotted a bullish divergence in both weekly and daily, first went in at $0.50, added more recently at $0.51; it pullback earlier this week but rallied on Fri, 2/1/15, first trade day in 2015.

Divergence tends to mark a reversal with the counter possibly retesting its previous peak $0.59, thus my exit will be based on technical indicators for this with several price points to keep watch. Example, if it break above $0.59, then this counter could challenge next price at $0.63 then $0.68; though these prices are abit early to talk about at this early stage of uptrend.

Hope the uptrend could continued its strength, looks like January effect is here after all...

Happy, Wealthy and Healthy New Year 2015!
May the trend be with you...

Reflection n Goals in New Year 2023

 Hi everyone, I've made my first YouTube post in 2023, do check it out...