Saturday, January 3, 2015

2014 November-December Review, 2013 vs 2014, Holdings going into 2015

2014 November-December Review

I suffered several drawdowns in my trades, drastically reducing my equity return this year to $4K only. I was too eager to "get it back" after my NOL loss that I kept going in and out of trades within days & failed to wait for the counters to play out. Its like riding a bull, the bull shake me & I drop out even though I know the bull is roughly heading in the direction I want (the reason I went in at the first place). My last trades in UOB-Kay Hian & SIA Engineering, had I hold on to the holdings, would have turn out profitable. This was my last key takeaways that I hope to learn & remember, if possible not repeating it...

2013 vs 2014 Returns

I realized my style gradually changed, I no longer follow penny and buyouts, focusing more on technical charting and indicators.

Holdings going into 2015
Wee Hur: 
My father highlighted this counter to me, hearing from his friends who said the company will likely declare 2cent dividend.

Upon closer look, company made record earning in Q3 EPS 9.67cent announced on 7 Nov 14, bringing 9M EPS to 11.16cent.
In 2012 FY EPS 13cent it declared 3cent dividend on 28 Feb 2013, ex-date 3 May 2013. Price went to a high of $0.57 before falling to $0.435 before ex-date.

4Q13 EPS: 0.76cent                          4Q12 EPS: 12.5cent

Est.FY14 EPS to be 12cent at least, likely will declare similar dividend of 3cent in Feb-Mar 2015, ex-date in May 15.

Thus we went into this trade as "father & son", target to hold to before/after ex-dividend date.

I spotted a bullish divergence in both weekly and daily, first went in at $0.50, added more recently at $0.51; it pullback earlier this week but rallied on Fri, 2/1/15, first trade day in 2015.

Divergence tends to mark a reversal with the counter possibly retesting its previous peak $0.59, thus my exit will be based on technical indicators for this with several price points to keep watch. Example, if it break above $0.59, then this counter could challenge next price at $0.63 then $0.68; though these prices are abit early to talk about at this early stage of uptrend.

Hope the uptrend could continued its strength, looks like January effect is here after all...

Happy, Wealthy and Healthy New Year 2015!
May the trend be with you...

No comments:

Post a Comment