Frasers Centrepoint Limited (TQ5)

Source: LTS Scan - Weekly Bollinger band touch and rebound.

9 Steps analysis – 2.25 [C2]

Intrinsic Value (EPS) $1.78             (Cash flow) $2.46

Fundamentals (based on SGX StockFacts)

EPS 3Q16 5.27c, 3Q15 5.7c; 9M16 11.77c, 9M15 16.48c

NAV $2.19 ;  Dividend 2x 8.6; Feb 6.2c, May 2.4c

Top 2 substantial shareholders TCC Assets Limited and Thai Beverage Public Company Limited collectively own 87.62%, should they decide to delist, all they need is to secure 69,020,756 shares which cost only $105.6 million (at $1.53 per share), which is quite cheap considering PE Ratio is only 7.71.

If earning drop by say 30% (9M16/15 fell 26.5%) to EPS 15c, PE is only 10.2.

Looking at the few property stocks that have delisted in recent years, I wont be surprise if Frasers decide to do the same.

Outlook: 

- Asset enhancement works at the Centrepoint, on schedule to complete in 3Q16.

- Northpoint City expected to complete in 2018

- Minimal lease expiry for office for remainder of FY15/16

- Frasers Tower expected to complete in 2018

- Sale of units in Australia & China while not fully sold, seem to do ok

- Capital Management seem good with various notes issued at rates lesser than CPF rates for examples; on 21 Apr 16, $250 mil.issued at 4.25%, due 2026;  on 21 Jul 16, US$200 mil.issued at 2.5% due 2021, along with capital recycled from sale of 19% interest in Compass Point, One@Changi City to Ascendas REIT...

- net D/E ratio decreased to 0.71x, more leverage space to develop further if good lands secured

- Going forward, expects a tepid growth environment

Weekly Price back at Sept 15 low, MACD-H 4th green histogram, MACD line flat, may cross above signal line in 1-2weeks;  Force index traced bullish divergence.

Daily price making upward movement, breaking above 13 & 26d EMAs;

MACD-H green & stayed above 0.

MACD-signal line uptrending after bullish crossover on 15 July 16, first recoil from EMAs over, a meaningful uptrend is in progress.

FI went above 0.

Tactical Plan

20 Jul 16 (Wed)                                 Bought @$1.53

Cut Loss:               $1.49 (out)           $1.495 [Alert, last low]

Targets                  (1) $1.58 [daily upper Bollinger band m 26wk BB average]

(2) $1.70 [resistance & weekly upper Bollinger band]

This counter was initially spotted on 20 July 16, and that was the date I went in. Waited sometimes when it dived below, until its 3Q earning was released on 5 Aug 16 (Fri). While the recent upward moves might be due to anticipation of earning news, the slight dip in earnings should not be much of concerns since earlier highlighted its PE ratio is attractive enough for me. If the uptrend continues, then the targets should be achievable in 2-3 months time.

May the trend be with me... 

Pokemon Go finally launched in Singapore!

In this post today, I am going to share on 2 things:
1) Pokemon Go, the game & company behind it
2) Pokemon Go, starter tip - how to get your favourite Pikachu as your starter pokemon
3) Pokemon Go, the lazy ethically legal way of playing it without the 5km+ travel

1) Pokemon Go, the game & company behind it
In case you are not aware, Pokemon Go (www.pokemongo.com) is one of the first Augmented Reality mobile games where the imaginary creatures called "pokemon" which derives from Pocket Monster could be "seen" from your phone's camera. And you could throw a device "pokeball" to try and capture these pokemons.

Watch the videos below, to find out more about why this game is hot!!! And you will appreciate why the craze all over the world!

Google even did a "recruitment"video for their search for talents!

Nintendo the company that co-own Niantic, the company which created Pokemon Go; its stock price went rollar coaster along the news of this Pokemon Go!

Look at how its price rose from JPY 14,380 on 6 July 16 all the way to its peak at JPY 31,770 on 19 July 16, a 220% rise in less than 2 weeks! It came half way down after company announced the super success of Pokemon Go will have no impacts on its earning for the current financial year; this led to a disappointment as investors were hopeful that Nintendo could made a comeback to its heyday of Super Marios & its other games to compete with the new generation of gaming companies.

What does this have to do with investing? If you haven't notice, as Warren Buffett often says, great companies are all around us. If you enjoy playing games, a new game is launched & you notice a fast spreading wildfire of interests catching on among your friends & colleagues, this could be one way of detecting potential great companies in the making. Pokemon Go was initially launched on 6 July, 2016 but prior to that, Niantic has already developed another game called Ingress (https://www.ingress.com) whose maps & database forms the backbone of the current Pokemon Go.

The reporter that caught & first announced the news, noticed how the number of downloads were breaking all time records, and how its daily active users fast exceeding other famous apps. like Twitter, & fast approaching other social medias like Facebook, wechat etc.

Imagine you were that reporter that spotted the trend, took a stake before it becomes common news, you can imagine how much your investments would have doubled in 2 weeks!

So the next time you are playing games, say you are researching the next explosive stocks for investment ;)

2) Pokemon Go, starter tip - how to get your favourite Pikachu as your starter pokemon
As promised, I shall now reveal the tip on how to get the Pikachu pokemon as your starter pokemon. First off, all starters will get to choose from 3 of the pokemons (Charmander, Squirtle and Bulbasaur) below, but if you want the main character Pikachu in the movie & animation series; here is how to do:

On the map, do not touch the 3 default pokemons, keep walking away from them. When you walk some distance away, the 3 default pokemons will slowly fade away from the screen, when that happen, it will "respawn" and reappear near you again.

Keep walking away, until they respawn 4 times, from the 4th time onwards, you will notice a 4th pokemon appearing nearby, that will be the popular Pikachu [see screenshot below]

3) Pokemon Go, the lazy ethically legal way of playing it without the 5km+ travel

Now for the lazy way of playing, without the 5km+ walk... nope I am not talking about fake GPS, that is not ethical & you will risk getting banned. For those whom wish to try, go ahead but Niantic has improved their programming and will detect whether you are enabling "mock location" which is a feature that mus be enabled along with fake GPS. So, its not going to work, of course "crackers" those programmers who crack the programming could try & by pass it, but then what's the fun if you just lie down and play? It defeat, the objective of going out & meet new people.

Well, I did promise without the 5km+ walk, but it require some luck, so here is the way.

  
Most of us lived in HDB, Condo, this is where the GPS signal bouncing happens due to the high rise buildings which caused your character to move around. Eg. when you move to your balcony and stand by the window awhile, you will notice the GPS slow catch on & your character start moving some distance to one side before it then readjust back once your location is slowly "zoom in" and reflect your true location. You could repeat this, by going to the front, back or side of your houses, and see if this will help you momentarily move closer to some nearby pokestops, this way you could pick up some goodies & even fight some pokemons without leaving your comfort home.

So there you have it, one last tips to help you along your pokemon journey.
There are already sevaral pokemon groups on Facebooks;
Pokemon Go SG
https://www.facebook.com/groups/PokemonGoSG/
Pokemon Go North East Singapore
https://www.facebook.com/groups/PokemonGoNorthEastSingapore/

Look around, join various groups to make friends, and for those fans there's even merchandise been peddled at the various groups, for the entrepreneurial ones, who knows you might have a one-time opportunity to monetise this trend if you could identify the needs of comsumers & sell them some real life "pokeballs, pokemons soft toys etc".

Enjoy the coming National Day 8 Aug 16 holiday, have fun! & remember to watch where you are going when you play Pokemon Go ( * v * )")